Moody’s Upgrades India’s Growth Rate Estimates for 2024 and 2025

Moody’s, a leading credit ratings and research agency, has revised its growth rate estimates for India, projecting stronger economic performance in 2024 and 2025. The agency has increased its real GDP growth estimate for 2024 from 6.8% to 7.2%. Similarly, the estimate for 2025 has been raised from 6.4% to 6.6%.

Inflation Forecasts Adjusted

Moody’s has also made adjustments to its inflation forecasts. The retail inflation estimate for 2024 has been reduced from 5.2% to 5%, reflecting an improvement in price stability. The inflation forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.8%.

Positive Economic Outlook Driven by Rural Demand

Moody’s noted that the Indian economy is in a favorable position, characterized by strong growth and moderating inflation. The agency highlighted that better-than-normal monsoon conditions in 2024 are expected to boost agricultural output, leading to a recovery in rural demand.

The report also suggests that as retail inflation approaches the 4% target, household consumption is likely to increase, further supporting economic growth.

Fitch Maintains India’s Rating

In contrast, Fitch Ratings has maintained India’s rating at ‘BBB-‘, with a stable outlook. Fitch has kept its growth projections unchanged, noting that India’s potential growth is supported by positive private investment outlooks, a robust services sector, and significant infrastructure development efforts.

This revision from Moody’s reflects growing confidence in India’s economic resilience, driven by improving rural demand and stable inflation rates, positioning the country for robust growth in the coming years.